“The goal of prosperity can be ever elusive, goalposts change as do what people consider to be measures of prosperity.”

This passage initiates the conclusion of the Manitoba Prosperity Report, released in late August of this year by the provincial Chamber of Commerce. The above quotation alludes to its findings, and the overall condition of Manitoba’s economy in 2011 – and to the future.

The report is a collection of statistical data, covering such socioeconomic categories as disposable income, labour force, personal taxes and entrepreneurial intensity, among others.

It also presents this information alongside that of other provinces, revealing the competitiveness of Manitoba’s economy and its current position amidst the whole of Canada.

“There is truth to the fact that Manitoba is less prosperous than its neighbours,” said University of Winnipeg economics professor Stefan Dodds. “This can be seen just by looking at GDP per capita numbers.”

It is true that, according to the report, Manitoba ranks last among its neighbours in per capita GDP, and this theme runs through other areas, too.

Although it has posted a steady growth in labour force, for example, it is the lowest such rate among the reviewed provinces.

Corporate tax competitiveness is another indicator of economic success, said Colin Craig, prairie director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. The report shows that Manitoba’s rate is the second highest next to Saskatchewan, and this does not bode well for high investment.

“We absolutely have to be competitive on the corporate tax side,” said Craig. “The sooner we address those problems, the more investment dollars we can attract, thus growing our tax base and sharing the load among even more taxpayers.”

In other areas, the report is somewhat inconclusive.

“The correlation between tax rates and prosperity ... does not necessarily mean that high tax rates reduce prosperity,” said Dodds when asked about personal taxation.

Whatever the case, Manitoba’s personal rates are among the highest, suggesting that lower levels of prosperity require higher revenues to improve public services.

However, entrepreneurial integrity is a minor focus of the report and both Dodds and Craig suspect private business stimulation would attract more investment in the long run.

“They could have made the argument that Manitoba relies (more) heavily on public sector employment than other provinces, which may explain why there are fewer private businesses per capita here,” Dodds said.

To date, Manitoba has made numerous efforts to improve economic security.

According to Craig, the province “should be applauded” for lowering the general business tax and small business tax rate, but it has sent negative signals with frequent minimum wage hikes and its decision to shut down the hog industry.

However, the report illuminates some significant areas of interest, and points towards sectors that need assistance.

For one, Manitoba is the only province to post a net interprovincial migration loss each year. In fact, from 2000 to 2010, the province lost a total of 47,836 persons, a statistic it hopes to reverse in the coming years.

“Maybe we should also be looking at increased incentives to keep skilled workers here in the first place,” Dodds said.

Published in Volume 66, Number 6 of The Uniter (October 5, 2011)