Will the fixed election date plague Greg Selinger?

There was considerable and immediate election talk surrounding the beginning of Greg Selinger’s run as Manitoba’s new premier.

If anything, this speculation is the consequence of a tradition in the Canadian political system. Leaders elected at conventions, federally and provincially, are reluctant to completely settle into the work of government without first appealing to the public through a general election. And, with the fixed date very new to Manitoba, it may work to the Progressive Conservatives’ advantage for Selinger to have to wait out two years before facing the public.

“We have in Manitoba right now Bill 37 whereby we now have fixed election dates,” said Rick Borotsik, PC Finance critic.“The NDP now has to live with that legislation which puts Mr. Selinger in a difficult place because he faces two years without an elected mandate…people will have to judge who Mr. Selinger is over the next two years.”

The PC’s are hoping that the economic problems facing the province, due in large part to cuts to provincial transfer payments from the federal government, are going to work to benefit the party in 2011. The NDP are in very good position in provincial polls; if Selinger could, there is very little doubt that he would call an election within the next few months. But according to Shannon Sampert, politics professor at the U of W, he can’t.

Because the NDP have a majority in the Manitoba legislature, a loss of confidence could only be brought about through a major caucus revolt, which is unlikely. You can read the stipulations in the 2008 amendment to the provincial Elections Act (which legislates fixed election dates, along with other campaign finance rules) here.

It was of little surprise that one of the first questions reporters put to Selinger was how he felt about the fixed election date set for October 2011. The new premier made it clear that he will honor the legislation.

“There were some who believe there should be an election, but what I have said in response to that is that fixed election dates are a relatively new thing and Canadians will have to get used to that,” Sampert said.

It is a new paradigm by which we’ll have to operate, she said. 

The first province to move toward fixed election dates (on a cycle of four years) was British Columbia in 2001. Their move was mirrored by all the Atlantic provinces between 2004-2008 as well as Ontario, Saskatchewan, the Northwest Territories and, in 2007, the federal government. Manitoba passed bill 37 in 2008.

Considering how new this legislation is across the country, I imagine that it is odd for many Canadians (including myself) to embrace leadership from someone unelected by the public.

Christopher Adams, vice president of Probe Research, believes that Manitobans are conditioned for these changes, and conditioned for Selingers leadership.

“Selinger was elected as part of the Doer government,” he said. “I think a lot of people went to the polls knowing that Doer wouldn’t fulfill his full 4-year term.”

What do you think? Are Manitobans ready to embrace a premier without an elected mandate? Is 2011 the year for Progressive Conservative gains?