Even after losing the popular former premier Gary Doer, the NDP retain a firm grip on political popularity in Manitoba, a recent Probe Research poll indicates.

The poll was published shortly before the Oct. 17 leadership convention when Greg Selinger was elected leader. It shows the party sitting comfortably at 45 per cent support in Manitoba, with the opposition Progressive Conservatives at 38 per cent.

In Winnipeg, which holds the majority of legislative ridings, the NDP is at 53 per cent and the PCs at 30 per cent.

Despite these numbers, the Progressive Conservatives remain hopeful the party can benefit from Doer’s resignation.

Immediately after Selinger’s victory was announced, the PCs distributed a pamphlet called “Is Greg Selinger Trustworthy?” which criticizes Selinger for fiscal mismanagement.

“If the [PC] party is going to reconnect with voters, they will need to frame the debate so that Selinger is nearly always on the defensive,” said Glenn Hollyoake, a University of Winnipeg student and PC party member.

Among the criticisms in the pamphlet is the issue of a Harmonized Sales Tax (HST). The NDP have been considering a federal proposal that Manitoba eliminate the PST (at seven per cent) and combine it with the GST (at five per cent) to create an overall harmonized rate of 12 per cent.

The proposal is meant to balance out equalization payments to the provinces. Premiers are under pressure to adopt the tax, and many provinces are receiving cash incentives to implement harmonization, said Shannon Sampert, politics professor at U of W.

Critics have argued that consumers would be hit hard by a harmonized sales tax because PST-exempt items would be charged the full 12 per cent tax.

Although Rosann Wowchuk, the acting minister of finance, has said the government doesn’t consider an HST beneficial, the PCs remain unconvinced.

“We have been asking for the benefits and costs of this proposal ... Show me the impact on consumers,” said Rick Borotsik, PC finance critic.

Others believe the NDP looks strong under the new leadership and that a renewed mandate will benefit the party.

“I think that Selinger will appeal to many South Winnipeg voters because of his record as finance minister,” said Christopher Adams, vice president of Probe Research Inc.

In order for the Progressive Conservatives to be successful in the next election, they would need to challenge Selinger in the south of Winnipeg and win back the support of the middle class, said Adams.

For more information on whether or not Manitobans will embrace a premier without an elected mandate, and further interview excerpts, go to Ethan Cabel’s blog.

Published in Volume 64, Number 9 of The Uniter (October 29, 2009)