Blog
February 28th 2009 | 2
Never too early to talk fantasy football - Part One
While I am still sorting out the ends of my basketball season (which is going horribly, so let’s not talk about that) I am looking ahead to the football season.
Contrary to popular belief, the football season is 12 months, not just the 17 weeks plus playoffs. There’s the NFL combine, free agency, and trades that are going on right now.
So what does that mean for fantasy football owners? Well, you’re season is just as long. And to give you a head start over the competition, I’m here to help you out.
So here’s a three part series that looks at how recent events are affecting who you should draft and when you should draft them.
The Rookie Pick
First, I start out every fantasy season by looking at this year’s draft class. You already know who the best players are and you can read mock drafts, EVERYWHERE, so I’m not going to waste my time boring you with what information you can get anywhere. Where the real value comes from fantasy drafting is the late rounds. And there’s no better place to look than at rookies getting drafted into the NFL.
Humbly, in the past I have been a genius at picking the breakout rookie (okay, well maybe not that humbly). In the 2006 and 2007 draft class, I had the insight to pick up Marques Colston and Adrian Peterson. Last year, I thought it would be Rashard Mendenhall between a toss up of him and Felix Jones (so I’m not perfect, but he does have a super bowl ring now right? Heh). Mind you did have both Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco backing up for me behind Peyton Manning but those were waiver wire pick ups after the season had started.
This year’s draft class is maybe a little weaker than previous ones. There’s no Darren McFadden out there or anyone truly impressing anyone with crazy numbers. So it’s a lot harder to pick. It is probably too early to look at players and maybe we should wait until pre-season or at least the draft to actually happen but this is my early take at it.
Right now, I’m looking at Michael Crabtree. He’s the obvious pick actually, so I’m not really going out on a limb here. However, he could not participate in the NFL combine so that might drop his draft position. Also, that might mean drop his value in fantasy owner radars that don’t follow prospects as closely.
Personally, I don’t care that Crabtree didn’t participate in the Combine. His numbers aren’t important. I don’t care what his 40 is, I don’t care how high he jumps, because I know it’s good and he doesn’t have to prove that. His numbers aren’t where his strength is.
Crabtree, from what I know, is a hard working kid. Whatever team he ends up on, he is going to do everything he can to prove himself. That’s what’s most important. He might not be the fastest in his draft class, might not be the biggest, but I think the intangibles will prove his worth.
However, the most important thing to remember here if you are looking at drafting him is that he is a high-profile draft pick. See if people in your fantasy pool are talking about him. If they are, then you might want to pass on him as he might be taken too early. But if you got a feeling no one knows about him, put him on your list.
Right now, Crabtree sits as a very solid 3rd or 4th WR on any fantasy team and could be a good steal in the late rounds of your draft. Any earlier than that is risky, I wouldn’t try to get him as my 2nd WR and wouldn’t even think about 1st. But he can be a great depth player. It might take a few games for him to breakout, but once he doesn, you’ll be laughing.
Again, however, this is a pre-draft, pre-preseason prediction. As I look at more prospects, everything can change. But Crabtree is who I have my eye on early on. In fact, wide receivers in general are what I’m looking at this draft for, so keep that in mind.
Update: Crabtree had surgery to repair the fracture in his left foot. This could drop his fantasy value. However, that isn’t a bad thing. Remember, fantasy sports is like a stock market. Buy low and sell high. This could be another opportunity to pick him later in your draft or even out of your draft
Discussion
-
you honestly think crabtree is a good fantasy pick? c’mon, how about….hmm…what’s his name….#1 pick…..Stafford. starting QB of a team who will win 8 games.
– interesting in winterpeg | March 5th 2009 at 8:33am | Link
-
Quarterbacks are such a risky pick for fantasy football. Most of the time it’s high-risk, low reward.
I think Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan were flukes. Quarterbacks generally need time to develop.
Think about most high profile quarterbacks in their first year. JaMarcus Russel was disappointing. Matt Leinart wasn’t very good. Just to name a couple.
Speaking of Flacco and Ryan, expect both of them to have a bad year along with fellow first year starter Aaron Rodgers. They are all in for rough sophomore seasons as their first years will be tough acts to follow.
I’m not sure if it will be Crabtree, but it will for sure be a wide receiver to be the breakout pick this year and, as of right now, Crabtree is head-over-heels above the competition.
– Jo Villaverde | March 6th 2009 at 2:28am | Link
